Researchers from Imperial College London believe anti-HIV drugs are unlikely to stop HIV epidemics even if they are made universally available in poorer countries.

Widespread use of antiretroviral therapy (ART) could even lead to an increase in the number of people infected with HIV, they argue.

In a new study, scientists revealed a model which predicts how different strategies for increasing access to ART might affect HIV infection rates.

The modelling found that while ART reduces the viral load of infected individuals, thus decreasing the risk of HIV transmission, slowing disease progression allows patients to live longer increasing the infected population and potentially the amount of new infections they will cause.

"This model demonstrates that ongoing provision of prevention initiatives for stopping the spread of HIV is vital," said author Rebecca Baggaley from ICL.

"While ART is undoubtedly effective at treating AIDS patients, particularly in richer countries, without public health interventions, it will not prove effective in stopping the spread of HIV in poorer countries."

The model also covered how ART treatment might affect behaviour.

The researchers believe it could result in a greater spread of HIV by making infected individuals feel physically better and more likely to be sexually active.

Counselling ART patients about risk behaviour could compensate for this to some extent by making prevention initiatives aiming to decrease patients' risk-taking even more relevant.

Baggaley added: "This study could be important in helping to ensure that limited supplies of ART are used most effectively."

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